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Germany vs Netherlands prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK
52Germany win24Draw24Netherlands win
The call
76%
Germany or draw
Calls like this land 74% of the time
204 of 277 settledFull record →
14d 18hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
1–1
11% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
1.9v1.2
3.1 in total
Both teams score
59%
Leans yes
3+ goals
59%
Leans likely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

GermanyGermanyNetherlandsNetherlands
1.9Goals1.2
usually 0.8usually 1.8
17.1Shots9.6
usually 17.3usually 19.0
5.5On target3.2
usually 4.2usually 6.5
6.3Corners4.3
usually 6.0usually 6.8
GermanyGermanyNetherlandsNetherlands
0.8Goals0.5
7.8Shots4.4
usually 8.8usually 8.7
2.5On target1.5
usually 2.2usually 2.2
2.9Corners2.0
usually 3.5usually 3.8
GermanyGermanyNetherlandsNetherlands
1.0Goals0.7
9.3Shots5.2
3.0On target1.8
3.3Corners2.3

More chances

Germany to score84%
2 or more goals81%
Goal before half-time74%
Netherlands to score70%
3 goals or fewer63%

Germany · last 6

Dat Greece0–021 shots
Wv Serbia2–032 shots
Lv Greece0–116 shots
Dat Netherlands1–110 shots
Dv Paraguay1–114 shots
Lv Ecuador1–211 shots

Netherlands · last 6

Wv Serbia2–122 shots
Dat Greece2–219 shots
Wat Serbia2–125 shots
Dv Germany1–122 shots
Dv Morocco1–16 shots
Wv Tunisia3–120 shots

Head to head

Sept 2026Netherlands 1–1 Germany
Oct 2024Germany 1–0 Netherlands
Sept 2024Netherlands 2–2 Germany
Mar 2024Germany 2–1 Netherlands
Mar 2022Netherlands 1–1 Germany

First half — what we expect

Germany
56%
to score before half-time
Netherlands
42%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

GermanyGermanyNetherlandsNetherlands
61%7+ shots19%
38%9+ shots<10%
88%1+ shots on target72%
43%3+ shots on target19%
74%2+ corners55%
34%4+ corners17%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Germany or draw is 76% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Germany lead 1–0 at half-time95%
Netherlands lead 1–0 at half-time42%
Goalless at half-time78%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

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Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Germany form →Netherlands form →

Common questions

Who will win Germany vs Netherlands?

Bawler's model rates this match: Germany are favoured (52% win probability vs 24% for Netherlands, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Germany vs Netherlands?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Germany 1-1 Netherlands (11.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.1.

How does Bawler predict Germany vs Netherlands?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Germany 52%, the draw 24% and Netherlands 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Germany vs Netherlands?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Germany expecting 1.86 goals and Netherlands 1.21.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Germany vs Netherlands?

Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.