Match prediction·NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie·Saturday 08 Aug, 16:45 UTC

Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
41.1% home31.1% draw27.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Go Ahead EaglesstepWillem II
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Go Ahead Eagles average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Go Ahead Eagles to win
55%
Over 3.5 goals
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Go Ahead Eagles and Willem II — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Go Ahead Eagles 41% · draw 31% · Willem II 28%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Go Ahead Eagles 41 Willem II
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.