Match prediction·England: Premier League·Monday 24 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Fulham vs Chelsea

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
31.7% home26.7% draw41.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
FulhamstepChelsea
1.52Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.52Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.29

Fulham average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (19 competitive matches). Chelsea average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
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0
6
8
5
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1
9
12
8
3
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7
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6
home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 13 Aug 2026

FulhamHome
No absences reported for Fulham in the latest round of club news.
Latest updates
  • 5 Aug · Line-up
    Arbeloa deploying high full-backs; Fulham penalty duty unresolved
    In the 2-1 pre-season win at Farense on 1 August, Ryan Sessegnon started at right-back in Arbeloa's high full-back system, with Antonee Robinson advanced on the left.
  • 5 Aug · Signing
    Fulham complete second Real Madrid deal for midfielder Cesar Palacios
    The 21-year-old attacking midfielder signed from Real Madrid until summer 2031 with a one-year option, for a reported €10m as part of a combined €50m double deal with Garcia.
ChelseaAway
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Emmanuel Emegha — Hamstring injury sustained in a closed-doors friendly vs Bromley; no surgery required
    Expected return: Expected back for the 21 Aug PL opener, but will miss the Australia/Asia tour leg
  • Mykhailo Mudryk — Four-year doping ban (meldonium; positive test Nov 2024, charged/banned early 2026). CAS appeal lodged 25 Feb 2026, hearing not yet scheduled
    Expected return: Unavailable all season - model as zero minutes for 2026/27
  • Reece James — Status unverified. Absent from the 28-man preseason touring squad; club said 'several other first-team players are expected to join during the tour', which reads more…
    Expected return: Unverified - needs monitoring before GW1. Material because he tops the free-kick/corner hierarchy
Latest updates
  • 13 Aug · Return
    James, Gusto and Enzo back at Cobham as Rogers, Lacroix, Barco train for first time
    Chelsea's last World Cup internationals reported back on Tuesday 11 August, with Reece James, Malo Gusto and Enzo Fernandez returning from delayed breaks after reaching the semi-finals and…
  • 13 Aug · Signing
    Dastan Satpaev transfer from Kairat completes as striker turns 18
    The pre-agreed move for Kazakhstan forward Dastan Satpaev from Kairat Almaty completed on his 18th birthday, 12 August, for a reported £3.3m. The deal had been agreed as far back as February…

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 13 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

FulhamHome4-3-3
Goalkeeper
GKBernd Leno
Defence
RBKenny TeteCBJoachim AndersenCBCalvin BasseyLBRyan Sessegnon
Midfield
CMHarrison Reed (single pivot / drops into back three)CMSaša LukićCMEmile Smith Rowe
Attack
RWAlex IwobiLWOscar BobbSTRodrigo Muniz
Selection doubts
  • LEFT-BACK — Ryan Sessegnon vs Antonee Robinson.
  • RIGHT-BACK — Kenny Tete vs Timothy Castagne vs the youngster 'Zepa'.
ChelseaAway3-4-3 · shape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKUNRESOLVED - Robert Sanchez vs Filip Jorgensen, both reportedly saleable
Defence
CB/RBReece James (fitness unconfirmed)CBLevi Colwill (confirmed fully fit as of 27 Jul after 2025/26 ACL)CBMaxence LacroixWB/RBMarco Palestra or Geovany QuendaWB/LBJorrel Hato
Midfield
CMMoises CaicedoCMEnzo Fernandez (exit speculation)AMCole PalmerAMMorgan Rogers
Attack
STJoao Pedro
Selection doubts
  • Formation itself is the primary battle - a back three would create two wing-back slots (Palestra/Quenda/Hato); a back four would not
  • Goalkeeper: Robert Sanchez vs Filip Jorgensen, genuinely unresolved.

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

PalmerPalmerCHE · MID · £9.5m4.6 pts
João PedroJoão PedroCHE · FWD · £7.5m3.7 pts
EnzoEnzoCHE · MID · £7.0m3.6 pts
All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Fulham fixtures & form →Chelsea fixtures & form →

Fulham vs Chelsea — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Fulham and Chelsea — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Fulham 32% · draw 27% · Chelsea 42%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Fulham predictions & form →Chelsea predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.