Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFrosinone on top, with Antonio Raimondo our likeliest to test the keeper.
Frosinone v Parma prediction
Frosinone are favourites on our numbers: 58% to win, against 20% for Parma and 22% for a draw. Our predicted score is Frosinone 2–1 Parma: the most likely score if Frosinone win, at 10%. Frosinone are expected to score 2.1 goals and Parma 1.1, 3.2 between them. Both teams scoring is 59% and three or more goals is 62%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Frosinone have won one, Parma three, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Frosinone 3–4 Parma, in Feb 2023. Antonio Raimondo is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.2 shots and 1.2 on target for Frosinone, if they start. For cards, Gabriele Bracaglia (Frosinone) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On shots, our forecast is 19.4 for Frosinone and 11.0 for Parma, with 6.4 and 3.2 on target, and corners at 6.3 to 3.4. So we expect Frosinone to do more of the shooting. In their last six games Frosinone have three wins, one draw and two defeats, while Parma have one win, one draw and four defeats. Both lost their most recent match. Bawler's pick for this game is Frosinone or Draw, Frosinone Over 14.5 Shots and Antonio Raimondo 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 50% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (2.02).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Frosinone · last 6
Parma · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Frosinone or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Frosinone vs Parma?
Bawler's model rates this match: Frosinone are favoured (58% win probability vs 20% for Parma, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Frosinone vs Parma?
Bawler's predicted score is Frosinone 2-1 Parma: the most likely score if Frosinone win, which is the likeliest result (58%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Frosinone vs Parma?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Frosinone 58%, the draw 22% and Parma 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Parma?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Frosinone expecting 2.06 goals and Parma 1.14.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Frosinone vs Parma?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.
When are the Frosinone v Parma line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Frosinone v Parma?
Frosinone or Draw (80%), Frosinone Over 14.5 Shots (81%), Antonio Raimondo 1+ Shot on Target (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.02). 18+, please gamble responsibly.