What we expect
In plain English
France should win this one. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Italy, and they have won four of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
France to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win France vs Italy?
Bawler's model rates this match: France are favoured (77% win probability vs 8% for Italy, 15% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for France vs Italy?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is France 2-0 Italy (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.58.
How does Bawler predict France vs Italy?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives France 77%, the draw 15% and Italy 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in France vs Italy?
BTTS: Yes (52% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.76 and away expected goals 0.82.
Over or under 2.5 goals in France vs Italy?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.58. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).