What we expect
In plain English
France are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six, and Belgium have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
France or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win France vs Belgium?
Bawler's model rates this match: France are favoured (45% win probability vs 31% for Belgium, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for France vs Belgium?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is France 1-1 Belgium (9.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.44.
How does Bawler predict France vs Belgium?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives France 45%, the draw 23% and Belgium 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in France vs Belgium?
BTTS: Yes (67% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.89 and away expected goals 1.55.
Over or under 2.5 goals in France vs Belgium?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.44. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).