Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelHeerenveen on top, and Maxence Rivera getting plenty of shots away.
Fortuna Sittard v Heerenveen prediction
Heerenveen are favourites on our numbers: 48% to win, against 28% for Fortuna Sittard and 25% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Fortuna Sittard 1–2 Heerenveen, the most likely Heerenveen win (9%). Our expected goals are 1.3 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.8 for Heerenveen, 3.1 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (61%) and three or more goals is 60%.
We expect Fortuna Sittard to have 14.4 shots (4.7 on target) and Heerenveen 16.4 (6.3 on target), and corners at 4.8 to 6.2. Of their last five meetings on our records, Fortuna Sittard have won two, Heerenveen one, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended SC Heerenveen 2–1 Fortuna Sittard, in Apr 2026.
On form, Fortuna Sittard have one win, five draws and no defeats from their last six games, and Heerenveen have five wins, no draws and one defeat. Maxence Rivera (Heerenveen) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 3.1 shots if they start. Anthony Descotte (Fortuna Sittard) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. Lequincio Zeefuik of Fortuna Sittard is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick combines Heerenveen or Draw, Heerenveen Over 12.5 Shots and Maxence Rivera 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 46%, a fair price of 6/5 (2.18).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Fortuna Sittard · last 6
Heerenveen · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Heerenveen or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Bawler's model rates this match: Heerenveen are favoured (48% win probability vs 28% for Fortuna Sittard, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Bawler's predicted score is Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Heerenveen: the most likely score if Heerenveen win, which is the likeliest result (48%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.3%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Fortuna Sittard 28%, the draw 25% and Heerenveen 48%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 61% chance. That is based on Fortuna Sittard expecting 1.32 goals and Heerenveen 1.78.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 60%.
When are the Fortuna Sittard v Heerenveen line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Fortuna Sittard v Heerenveen?
Heerenveen or Draw (72%), Heerenveen Over 12.5 Shots (77%), Maxence Rivera 2+ Shots (76%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 46% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.18). 18+, please gamble responsibly.