What we expect
In plain English
Finland are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Finland or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Finland vs Albania?
Bawler's model rates this match: Finland are favoured (45% win probability vs 29% for Albania, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Finland vs Albania?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Finland 1-1 Albania (12.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.82.
How does Bawler predict Finland vs Albania?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Finland 45%, the draw 26% and Albania 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Finland vs Albania?
BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.58 and away expected goals 1.23.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Finland vs Albania?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.82. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).