Finland vs Albania prediction — UEFA Nations League · Sat 3 Oct · 14:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Sat 3 Oct · 14:00 UK
44Finland win29Draw27Albania win
Full time
2–1

How it finished

Finland beat Albania 2–1. Finland had 11 shots (3 on target) to Albania's 13 (5), with 60% of the ball against 40%. On expected goals it was 0.5 to 1.0, so Albania created the better chances and still lost the game.

FinlandFull-time statsAlbania
60%Possession40%
0.5Expected goals (xG)1.0
11Shots13
3Shots on target5
3Shots inside box11
0Big chances1
7Corners6
4Saves1
13Fouls10
1Offsides3
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1
We expected
1–1
14% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
1.4v1.0
2.4 in total
Both teams score
47%
Leans no
3+ goals
42%
Leans unlikely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

FinlandFinlandAlbaniaAlbania
1.4Goals1.0
FinlandFinlandAlbaniaAlbania
0.6Goals0.4
FinlandFinlandAlbaniaAlbania
0.8Goals0.6

Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

What we said the chances were

3 goals or fewer79%
Finland to score74%
2 or more goals68%
Goal before half-time65%
Albania to score63%

First half — what we expected

Finland
45%
to score before half-time
Albania
35%
to score before half-time

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Head to head

Oct 2026Finland 2–1 Albania
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Finland form →Albania form →

Common questions

Who won Finland vs Albania?

Finland beat Albania 2–1. Finland had 11 shots (3 on target) to Albania's 13 (5), with 60% of the ball against 40%. On expected goals it was 0.5 to 1.0, so Albania created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Finland vs Albania?

Finland 2–1 Albania, played on 03 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Finland 44%, the draw 29% and Albania 27%.

What were the stats in Finland vs Albania?

Full-time: Possession 60%–40%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.0, Shots 11–13, Shots on target 3–5, Shots inside box 3–11, Big chances 0–1, Corners 7–6, Saves 4–1, Fouls 13–10, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 1–3, Red cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Finland vs Albania?

Yes — both Finland and Albania scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 47% before kickoff.