Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFenerbahce on top: Mason Greenwood to test the keeper, and Eren Tozlu kept busy stopping them.
Fenerbahce v Erzurum BB prediction
Our model gives Fenerbahce a 75% chance of winning this Süper Lig game. A Erzurum BB win is 8% and a draw 17%. Our predicted score is Fenerbahce 2–0 Erzurum BB, at 13%. Fenerbahce are expected to score 2.4 goals and Erzurum BB 0.7, 3.0 between them. Both teams scoring is only 44% and three or more goals is 59%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Fenerbahce have won five, Erzurum BB none. When they last met, it finished Fenerbahçe 3–1 Erzurumspor FK, in Feb 2026. Mason Greenwood is the player we expect to shoot most: 4.0 shots and 1.4 on target for Fenerbahce, if they start. For cards, Romelu Lukaku (Fenerbahce) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On form, Fenerbahce have three wins, one draw and two defeats from their last six games, and Erzurum BB have three wins, one draw and two defeats. On shots, our forecast is 20.9 for Fenerbahce and 9.2 for Erzurum BB, with 7.6 and 2.7 on target, and corners at 6.9 to 2.9. So we expect Fenerbahce to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Fenerbahce or Draw, Eren Tozlu 1+ Foul Committed and Mason Greenwood 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 54% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/6, or 1.84.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Fenerbahce · last 6
Erzurum BB · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Fenerbahce to win is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Süper Lig table →Common questions
Who will win Fenerbahce vs Erzurum BB?
Bawler's model rates this match: Fenerbahce are favoured (75% win probability vs 8% for Erzurum BB, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Fenerbahce vs Erzurum BB?
Bawler's predicted score is Fenerbahce 2-0 Erzurum BB: the most likely score if Fenerbahce win, which is the likeliest result (75%). Our model puts that exact score at 13.3%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Fenerbahce vs Erzurum BB?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Fenerbahce 75%, the draw 17% and Erzurum BB 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahce vs Erzurum BB?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 44% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Fenerbahce expecting 2.37 goals and Erzurum BB 0.67.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Fenerbahce vs Erzurum BB?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the Fenerbahce v Erzurum BB line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Fenerbahce v Erzurum BB?
Fenerbahce or Draw (92%), Eren Tozlu 1+ Foul Committed (76%), Mason Greenwood 1+ Shot on Target (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.84). 18+, please gamble responsibly.