What we expect
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win England vs Spain?
Bawler's model rates this match: Spain are favoured (45% win probability vs 28% for England, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for England vs Spain?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is England 1-1 Spain (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.68.
How does Bawler predict England vs Spain?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives England 28%, the draw 27% and Spain 45%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in England vs Spain?
BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.15 and away expected goals 1.53.
Over or under 2.5 goals in England vs Spain?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.68. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).