FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Friday, 16 October 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FC CologneMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 16 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Eintracht Frankfurt or draw at 75%. Bawler had Eintracht Frankfurt at 52%, the draw at 23% and FC Cologne at 25%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Eintracht Frankfurt win
52%
Result
Draw
23%
FC Cologne win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.4
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.4 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Missed
Medium confidence
Eintracht Frankfurt to win
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.