What we expect
In plain English
England are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Czechia, and they have won two of the last three between them. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
England to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Czechia vs England?
Bawler's model rates this match: England are favoured (68% win probability vs 13% for Czechia, 19% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Czechia vs England?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Czechia 0-2 England (10.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.31.
How does Bawler predict Czechia vs England?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Czechia 13%, the draw 19% and England 68%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Czechia vs England?
BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 0.95 and away expected goals 2.36.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Czechia vs England?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.31. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).