Cyprus are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Montenegro have won three of the last four between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Cyprus or draw is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Cyprus · last 6
Montenegro · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Cyprus vs Montenegro?
Bawler's model rates this match: Cyprus are favoured (39% win probability vs 35% for Montenegro, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Cyprus vs Montenegro?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Cyprus 1-1 Montenegro (12.2% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Cyprus vs Montenegro?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Cyprus 39%, the draw 26% and Montenegro 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Cyprus vs Montenegro?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Cyprus expecting 1.50 goals and Montenegro 1.42.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Cyprus vs Montenegro?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.