Match prediction·EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification·Thursday 13 Aug, 18:00 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
CSKA SofiastepMaccabi Tel-Aviv
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

CSKA Sofia average 3.3 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Maccabi Tel Aviv average 2.5 corners per game away from home this season (4 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
CSKA Sofia or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
CSKA Sofia Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, CSKA Sofia have won 1, Maccabi Tel-Aviv have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 August 2026Maccabi Tel-Aviv 03 CSKA SofiaEUROPE: Europa League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: CSKA Sofia 40% · draw 28% · Maccabi Tel-Aviv 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.