FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 13 August 2026
CSKA Sofia 1–3 Maccabi Tel-AvivMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 13 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had CSKA Sofia at 40%, draw at 28%, Maccabi Tel-Aviv at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was CSKA Sofia to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sofia win
40%
Draw
28%
Tel-Aviv win
32%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
CSKA Sofia or Draw
Pre-match: 68%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost