FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
CSKA Sofia 0–2 OFI CreteMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had CSKA Sofia at 46%, draw at 26%, OFI Crete at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was CSKA Sofia to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sofia win
46%
Draw
26%
Crete win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.26
Total 2.92
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 79%, backed by CSKA Sofia's 0.40 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.92 suggesting an open, attacking contest."