FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

OFI Crete 30 CSKA SofiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026

OFI Crete
30
OFI Crete win
CSKA Sofia
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had OFI Crete at 43%, draw at 27%, CSKA Sofia at 31%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward OFI Crete.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Crete win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Sofia win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.521.26
Total 2.79
Actual
30
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost

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