FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
OFI Crete 3–0 CSKA SofiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was OFI Crete or draw at 69%. Bawler had OFI Crete at 43%, the draw at 27% and CSKA Sofia at 31%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
OFI Crete win
43%
Result
Draw
27%
CSKA Sofia win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.