FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Lugano 2–1 Maccabi Tel-AvivMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Lugano at 51%, draw at 25%, Maccabi Tel-Aviv at 24%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Lugano.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lugano win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Tel-Aviv win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.73 – 1.11
Total 2.84
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost