FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Lugano 2–1 Maccabi Tel-AvivMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Lugano or draw at 76%. Bawler had FC Lugano at 51%, the draw at 25% and Maccabi Tel-Aviv at 24%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Lugano win
51%
Result
Draw
25%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.