Match prediction·Belgium: Pro League·Friday 07 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Club Brugge vs KV Kortrijk

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 81% probability because both teams combine for just 1.50 expected goals—a low-volume fixture that punishes betting volume.

📊 Win probability
52.1% home27.3% draw20.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Club BruggestepKV Kortrijk
1.70Base xG · rolling 26-match1.23
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.92Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.15

Club Brugge average 6.4 corners per game at home this season (30 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
5
3
1
1
9
10
6
2
1
2
9
10
6
2
1
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5
6
4
1
4
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3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
KV Kortrijk or draw
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Club Brugge vs KV Kortrijk — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Club Brugge and KV Kortrijk — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Club Brugge 52% · draw 27% · KV Kortrijk 21%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Club Brugge 30 KV Kortrijk
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.