FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 07 August 2026
Club Brugge 3–0 KV KortrijkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 07 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Club Brugge at 52%, draw at 27%, KV Kortrijk at 21%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Club Brugge.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brugge win
52%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Kortrijk win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.92 – 1.15
Total 3.07
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 81% probability because both teams combine for just 1.50 expected goals—a low-volume fixture that punishes betting volume."