Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Burnley v Birmingham City prediction
Burnley are narrow favourites on our numbers, at 38%. Birmingham City are 36%, and the draw 26%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Burnley 2–1 Birmingham City, the most likely Burnley win (8%). We expect 3.0 goals in total: 1.5 for Burnley and 1.5 for Birmingham City. Both teams scoring is 60% and three or more goals is 57%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Burnley have won two, Birmingham City none, and three were drawn. When they last met, it finished Burnley 3–0 Birmingham City, in Dec 2022. On shots, our forecast is 12.2 for Burnley and 13.4 for Birmingham City, with 3.3 and 4.2 on target, and corners at 4.0 to 5.5.
Of the players, Largie Ramazani of Burnley tops our shots forecast at 2.8, if they start. Andréas Hountondji (Burnley) leads for shots on target, at 0.9. For cards, Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley) has been booked about once a game in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On form, Burnley have no wins, three draws and three defeats from their last six games, and Birmingham City have five wins, no draws and one defeat. Bawler's pick for this game is Over 20.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 4.5 Total Shots on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 65% chance, which makes the fair price 8/15 (1.53).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Burnley · last 6
Birmingham City · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Burnley or draw is 64% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Burnley are favoured (38% win probability vs 36% for Birmingham City, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Bawler's predicted score is Burnley 2-1 Birmingham City: the most likely score if Burnley win, which is the likeliest result (38%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.4%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Burnley 38%, the draw 26% and Birmingham City 36%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Burnley expecting 1.52 goals and Birmingham City 1.47.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.
When are the Burnley v Birmingham City line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Burnley v Birmingham City?
Over 20.5 Total Shots (81%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (80%), Over 4.5 Total Shots on Target (85%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 65% chance, a fair price of 8/15 (1.53). 18+, please gamble responsibly.