Besiktas vs Erzurum BB prediction — Süper Lig · Fri 11 Sept · 18:00 UK

Süper Lig · Fri 11 Sept · 18:00 UK
Besiktas 65Draw 20Erzurum BB 15
The call
65%
Besiktas to win
3.2
Goals expected
7d 07hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Besiktas to score89%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Erzurum BB to score62%
Over 2.5 goals62%

Player forecasts

How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.

Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.

Besiktas
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Jota Silva
MF · 4.4 shots expected
99%
73%
38%
Orkun Kökcü
MF · 3.7 shots expected
98%
72%
37%
Cengiz Ünder
MF · 3.4 shots expected
97%
72%
36%
Junior Olaïtan
MF · 3.3 shots expected
96%
63%
26%
Václav Cerny
MF · 3.3 shots expected
96%
71%
35%
Tammy Abraham
FW · 3.0 shots expected
95%
77%
43%

These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W W L L W W
Expected goals gap (xG)+1.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5BES 2 · D 1 · ERZ 2
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Apr 2021Erzurumspor FK 2–4 Beşiktaş
Dec 2020Beşiktaş 4–0 Erzurumspor FK
Jan 2020Beşiktaş 2–3 Erzurumspor FK
Jan 2020Erzurumspor FK 3–2 Beşiktaş
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Common questions

Who will win Besiktas vs Erzurum BB?

Bawler's model rates this match: Besiktas are favoured (65% win probability vs 15% for Erzurum BB, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Besiktas vs Erzurum BB?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Besiktas 2-0 Erzurum BB (10.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.18.

How does Bawler predict Besiktas vs Erzurum BB?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Besiktas 65%, the draw 20% and Erzurum BB 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Besiktas vs Erzurum BB?

BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.20 and away expected goals 0.98.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Besiktas vs Erzurum BB?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.18. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Süper Lig table →
All fixtures & results →Besiktas form →Erzurum BB form →