Benfica vs 
Heart of Midlothian
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Under 2.5 Goals is the play at 85% — Benfica's 0.80 xG and Hearts' 0.59 combine to just 1.39 total, signaling a low-volume Europa League qualifier.
BenficastepHeart of MidlothianBenfica average 7.1 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Hearts average 5.6 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Benfica vs Hearts — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Benfica and Hearts — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Benfica 58% · draw 27% · Hearts 16%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Benfica 6–1 Heart of MidlothianModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.