What we expect
In plain English
Belarus are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Finland have won two of the last three between them. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Belarus or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Belarus vs Finland?
Bawler's model rates this match: Belarus are favoured (46% win probability vs 30% for Finland, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Belarus vs Finland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Belarus 1-1 Finland (9.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.43.
How does Bawler predict Belarus vs Finland?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Belarus 46%, the draw 23% and Finland 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Belarus vs Finland?
BTTS: Yes (67% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.91 and away expected goals 1.52.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Belarus vs Finland?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.43. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).