Team stats
What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
Match odds
How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first.
In plain English
Bayer Leverkusen should win this one. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than 1. FC Nürnberg, and 1. FC Nürnberg have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Bayer Leverkusen to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 81%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bayer Leverkusen are favoured (86% win probability vs 4% for 1. FC Nürnberg, 10% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 1. FC Nürnberg (12.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.8.
How does Bawler predict Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Bayer Leverkusen 86%, the draw 10% and 1. FC Nürnberg 4%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 44% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Bayer Leverkusen expecting 3.19 goals and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.61.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Bawler's model expects 3.8 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 73%.