What we expect
In plain English
Al Hilal should win this one. They have won five of their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Al Ittihad. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Al Hilal to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Al Hilal vs Al Ittihad?
Bawler's model rates this match: Al Hilal are favoured (75% win probability vs 10% for Al Ittihad, 15% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Al Hilal vs Al Ittihad?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Hilal 2-0 Al Ittihad (9.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.72.
How does Bawler predict Al Hilal vs Al Ittihad?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Al Hilal 75%, the draw 15% and Al Ittihad 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Al Hilal vs Al Ittihad?
BTTS: Yes (57% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.78 and away expected goals 0.94.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Hilal vs Al Ittihad?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.72. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).