FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 23 October 2026

Al Qadsiah 2–3 Al HilalMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026

Al Qadsiah
2–3
Al Hilal win
Al Hilal

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Hilal or draw at 69%. Bawler had Al Qadsiah at 31%, the draw at 24% and Al Hilal at 45%. The match finished 2–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Qadsiah win
31%
Draw
24%
Al Hilal win
45%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.8
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 2.8
From the match itself

The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Al Hilal or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 84%, as Al Hilal's 1.79 xG advantage and superior 45% win probability suggest attacking threat will overcome Al Qadsiah's 1.47 expected output."

More from Bawler