What we expect
In plain English
Al Ahli are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have lost four of their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Al Fateh. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Al Ahli to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Al Fateh vs Al Ahli?
Bawler's model rates this match: Al Ahli are favoured (63% win probability vs 16% for Al Fateh, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Al Fateh vs Al Ahli?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Fateh 1-2 Al Ahli (9.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.28.
How does Bawler predict Al Fateh vs Al Ahli?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Al Fateh 16%, the draw 21% and Al Ahli 63%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Al Fateh vs Al Ahli?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.05 and away expected goals 2.22.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Fateh vs Al Ahli?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.28. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).