FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Thursday, 22 October 2026

Al Fateh 1–3 Al ShababMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026

Al Fateh
1–3
Al Shabab win
Al Shabab

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Fateh or draw at 63%. Bawler had Al Fateh at 39%, the draw at 24% and Al Shabab at 37%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Fateh win
39%
Draw
24%
Al Shabab win
37%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 3.4
From the match itself

The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% because both teams generate nearly identical attacking threat—Al Fateh 1.68 xG, Al Shabab 1.63—creating a low-variance, high-scoring forecast."

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