FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Thursday, 15 October 2026

Al Hazem 2–3 Al FatehMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026

Al Hazem
2–3
Al Fateh win
Al Fateh

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Hazem or draw at 65%. Bawler had Al Hazem at 39%, the draw at 26% and Al Fateh at 35%. The match finished 2–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Hazem win
39%
Draw
26%
Al Fateh win
35%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 2.3
From the match itself

The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

More from Bawler