Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAberdeen on top, and Kevin Nisbet getting plenty of shots away.
Aberdeen v Dundee prediction
Aberdeen are favourites on our numbers: 43% to win, against 30% for Dundee and 27% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Aberdeen 1–0 Dundee, the most likely Aberdeen win (10%). We expect 2.7 goals in total: 1.5 for Aberdeen and 1.2 for Dundee. Both teams scoring is 54% and three or more goals is 51%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Aberdeen have won two, Dundee three. When they last met, it finished Aberdeen 3–0 Dundee FC, in Aug 2026. Aberdeen come in with one win, no draws and five defeats in their last six. Dundee have three wins, one draw and two defeats over the same run.
Kevin Nisbet is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.2 shots and 1.1 on target for Aberdeen, if they start. For cards, Lewis Mayo (Aberdeen) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. On shots, our forecast is 16.2 for Aberdeen and 11.5 for Dundee, with 5.5 and 3.8 on target, and corners at 6.1 to 4.4. So we expect Aberdeen to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Aberdeen or Draw, Aberdeen Over 11.5 Shots and Kevin Nisbet 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 49% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/10, or 2.06.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Aberdeen · last 6
Dundee · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Aberdeen or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Common questions
Who will win Aberdeen vs Dundee?
Bawler's model rates this match: Aberdeen are favoured (43% win probability vs 30% for Dundee, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Aberdeen vs Dundee?
Bawler's predicted score is Aberdeen 1-0 Dundee: the most likely score if Aberdeen win, which is the likeliest result (43%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Aberdeen vs Dundee?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Aberdeen 43%, the draw 27% and Dundee 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Dundee?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Aberdeen expecting 1.51 goals and Dundee 1.20.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Aberdeen vs Dundee?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 51%.
When are the Aberdeen v Dundee line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Aberdeen v Dundee?
Aberdeen or Draw (70%), Aberdeen Over 11.5 Shots (82%), Kevin Nisbet 2+ Shots (77%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.06). 18+, please gamble responsibly.