What we expect
In plain English
Zulte-Waregem are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Zulte-Waregem or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Zulte-Waregem vs KAA Gent?
Bawler's model rates this match: Zulte-Waregem are favoured (40% win probability vs 34% for KAA Gent, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Zulte-Waregem vs KAA Gent?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Zulte-Waregem 1-1 KAA Gent (12.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.81.
How does Bawler predict Zulte-Waregem vs KAA Gent?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Zulte-Waregem 40%, the draw 27% and KAA Gent 34%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Zulte-Waregem vs KAA Gent?
BTTS: Yes (57% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.47 and away expected goals 1.34.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Zulte-Waregem vs KAA Gent?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.81. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).