FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 18 September 2026
KAA Gent 2–1 Standard LiegeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 18 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had KAA Gent at 49%, draw at 25%, Standard Liege at 26%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward KAA Gent.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Gent win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Liege win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.73 – 1.21
Total 2.93
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals ranks as the model's high-confidence call at 79%, with Gent's 0.52 xG advantage and stronger win probability (49% vs. 26%) positioning the hosts to control play and generate multiple scoring chances."