What we expect
In plain English
Denmark are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Wales, and Wales have not beaten them in their last three meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Denmark to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Wales vs Denmark?
Bawler's model rates this match: Denmark are favoured (62% win probability vs 18% for Wales, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Wales vs Denmark?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Wales 1-2 Denmark (9.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.55.
How does Bawler predict Wales vs Denmark?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Wales 18%, the draw 20% and Denmark 62%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Wales vs Denmark?
BTTS: Yes (64% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.22 and away expected goals 2.33.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Wales vs Denmark?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.55. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).