What we expect
In plain English
Waasland-Beveren are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Waasland-Beveren or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK?
Bawler's model rates this match: Waasland-Beveren are favoured (39% win probability vs 32% for Lommel SK, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Waasland-Beveren 1-1 Lommel SK (13.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.40.
How does Bawler predict Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Waasland-Beveren 39%, the draw 29% and Lommel SK 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK?
BTTS: No (51% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.27 and away expected goals 1.13.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.40. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).