FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Union St.-Gilloise 5–0 Lommel SKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Union St.-Gilloise at 65%, draw at 22%, Lommel SK at 13%. The match ended 5-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Union St.-Gilloise.
> Pre-match probability vs result
St.-Gilloise win
65%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
SK win
13%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.95 – 0.76
Total 2.70
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Union St.-Gilloise's home advantage combines with a decisive 1.19 xG edge to make their 65% win probability the model's high-confidence call against a Lommel side generating just 0.76 expected goals."