What we expect
In plain English
Uzbekistan are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Uzbekistan or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Uzbekistan vs Syria?
Bawler's model rates this match: Uzbekistan are favoured (46% win probability vs 31% for Syria, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Uzbekistan vs Syria?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Uzbekistan 1-1 Syria (10.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.39.
How does Bawler predict Uzbekistan vs Syria?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Uzbekistan 46%, the draw 24% and Syria 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Uzbekistan vs Syria?
BTTS: Yes (66% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.88 and away expected goals 1.51.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Uzbekistan vs Syria?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.39. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).