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Bawler / Jordan vs Syria / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Jordan 1–1 SyriaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Jordan
1–1
Draw
Syria
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Jordan at 48%, draw at 25%, Syria at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Jordan to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Jordan win
48%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Syria win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.71 – 1.23
Total 2.94
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Jordan's attacking creators like Al-Taamari edge Syria's defence in expected-goal terms (1.69–1.24), making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 79% high-confidence call."

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