What we expect
In plain English
United States should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Canada. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
United States or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win United States vs Canada?
Bawler's model rates this match: United States are favoured (56% win probability vs 22% for Canada, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for United States vs Canada?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is United States 1-1 Canada (10.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.21.
How does Bawler predict United States vs Canada?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives United States 56%, the draw 23% and Canada 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in United States vs Canada?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.02 and away expected goals 1.19.
Over or under 2.5 goals in United States vs Canada?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.21. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).