FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Canada 1–0 ChileMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Canada
1–0
Canada win
Chile
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Canada at 55%, draw at 25%, Chile at 20%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Canada.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Canada win
55%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Chile win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.79 – 1.00
Total 2.80
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Canada's 0.73 expected-goals advantage and Davies's creative role make 1X (Canada win or draw) the model's 79% call at home."

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