United Arab Emirates vs Syria prediction — International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 14:10 UK

International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 14:10 UKUpdated Wed 11 Nov, 17:06 UK
44United Arab Emirates win28Draw28Syria win
The call
72%
United Arab Emirates or draw

United Arab Emirates v Syria prediction

Our model makes United Arab Emirates favourites for this International friendlies game, giving them a 44% chance of winning. Syria are 28% and the draw is 28%. Our predicted score is United Arab Emirates 1–0 Syria: the most likely score if United Arab Emirates win, at 11%. We expect 2.5 goals in total: 1.4 for United Arab Emirates and 1.1 for Syria. Both sides are more likely than not to score (50%) and three or more goals is 46%.

We expect United Arab Emirates to have 15.6 shots (5.0 on target) and Syria 4.4 (2.2 on target), and corners at 4.5 to 2.3. That points to United Arab Emirates doing more of the attacking.

Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.

Predicted score
1–0
Likeliest score if United Arab Emirates win (11%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (13%)
Expected goals
1.4v1.1
2.5 in total
Both teams score
50%
Coin flip
3+ goals
46%
Leans unlikely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

United Arab EmiratesSyriaSyria
1.4Goals1.1
usually 1.5usually 1.3
15.6Shots4.4
usually 13.2usually 5.3
5.0On target2.2
usually 4.8usually 1.8
4.5Corners2.3
usually 3.5usually 3.5
United Arab EmiratesSyriaSyria
0.6Goals0.5
7.1Shots2.0
usually 6.3usually 2.0
2.2On target1.0
usually 2.3usually 0.8
2.1Corners1.1
usually 1.8usually 1.8
United Arab EmiratesSyriaSyria
0.8Goals0.6
8.5Shots2.4
2.7On target1.2
2.4Corners1.2

More chances

United Arab Emirates to score76%
3 goals or fewer75%
2 or more goals72%
Goal before half-time67%
Syria to score66%

United Arab Emirates · last 6

Lat Saudi Arabia0–213 shots
Wv Oman1–010 shots
Dv Qatar1–112 shots
Wv Bahrain3–020 shots
Wv Yemen4–012 shots
Dv Saudi Arabia0–012/18

Syria · last 6

Lat Uzbekistan1–410/01
Dat Jordan1–109/27
Lv Belarus1–406/05
Wv Afghanistan5–103/31
Lv Morocco0–16 shots
Dv Palestine0–05 shots

First half — what we expect

United Arab Emirates
47%
to score before half-time
Syria
38%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

United Arab EmiratesSyriaSyria
65%6+ shots<10%
41%8+ shots<10%
86%1+ shots on target58%
38%3+ shots on target10%
83%1+ corners60%
35%3+ corners12%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

United Arab Emirates or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

United Arab Emirates lead 1–0 at half-time95%
Syria lead 1–0 at half-time36%
Goalless at half-time76%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

Build a combination on this match →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

United Arab Emirates
Before this
13 NovHHonduras14:15
All fixtures & results →United Arab Emirates form →Syria form →

Common questions

Who will win United Arab Emirates vs Syria?

Bawler's model rates this match: United Arab Emirates are favoured (44% win probability vs 28% for Syria, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for United Arab Emirates vs Syria?

Bawler's predicted score is United Arab Emirates 1-0 Syria: the most likely score if United Arab Emirates win, which is the likeliest result (44%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.3%. Expected total goals: 2.5.

How does Bawler predict United Arab Emirates vs Syria?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives United Arab Emirates 44%, the draw 28% and Syria 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in United Arab Emirates vs Syria?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on United Arab Emirates expecting 1.43 goals and Syria 1.09.

Over or under 2.5 goals in United Arab Emirates vs Syria?

Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 46%.

When are the United Arab Emirates v Syria line-ups announced?

Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.