Our model makes United Arab Emirates favourites for this International friendlies game, giving them a 44% chance of winning. Syria are 28% and the draw is 28%. Our predicted score is United Arab Emirates 1–0 Syria: the most likely score if United Arab Emirates win, at 11%. We expect 2.5 goals in total: 1.4 for United Arab Emirates and 1.1 for Syria. Both sides are more likely than not to score (50%) and three or more goals is 46%.
We expect United Arab Emirates to have 15.6 shots (5.0 on target) and Syria 4.4 (2.2 on target), and corners at 4.5 to 2.3. That points to United Arab Emirates doing more of the attacking.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
United Arab Emirates or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Bawler's model rates this match: United Arab Emirates are favoured (44% win probability vs 28% for Syria, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
Bawler's predicted score is United Arab Emirates 1-0 Syria: the most likely score if United Arab Emirates win, which is the likeliest result (44%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.3%. Expected total goals: 2.5.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives United Arab Emirates 44%, the draw 28% and Syria 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on United Arab Emirates expecting 1.43 goals and Syria 1.09.
Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 46%.
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.