FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 24 October 2026
RB Leipzig 4–0 SV ElversbergMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was RB Leipzig to win at 64%. Bawler had RB Leipzig at 64%, the draw at 19% and SV Elversberg at 17%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
RB Leipzig win
64%
Result
Draw
19%
SV Elversberg win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 1.3
Total 3.9
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
RB Leipzig to win
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Leipzig's home advantage and 1.30 xG edge—anchored by Openda's 26% of team creation—makes a Home Win the 65% forecast here."