What we expect
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win South Korea vs Ecuador?
Bawler's model rates this match: Ecuador are favoured (41% win probability vs 28% for South Korea, 31% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for South Korea vs Ecuador?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is South Korea 1-1 Ecuador (14.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.16.
How does Bawler predict South Korea vs Ecuador?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives South Korea 28%, the draw 31% and Ecuador 41%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in South Korea vs Ecuador?
BTTS: No (57% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.94 and away expected goals 1.22.
Over or under 2.5 goals in South Korea vs Ecuador?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.16. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).