How it finished
South Korea beat Ecuador 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Ecuador at 41% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave South Korea 28%. It forecast 2.2 goals; the match produced 3. South Korea had 11 shots (5 on target) to Ecuador's 10 (3), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected from each side before kickoff, next to how they had been doing.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
What we published
How likely we said the big moments were, before kickoff.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 62%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won South Korea vs Ecuador?
South Korea beat Ecuador 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Ecuador at 41% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave South Korea 28%. It forecast 2.2 goals; the match produced 3. South Korea had 11 shots (5 on target) to Ecuador's 10 (3), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.4.
What was the final score in South Korea vs Ecuador?
South Korea 3–0 Ecuador, played on 24 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with South Korea 28%, the draw 31% and Ecuador 41%.
What were the stats in South Korea vs Ecuador?
Full-time: Possession 59%–41%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.4, Shots 11–10, Shots on target 5–3, Shots inside box 5–2, Big chances 2–0, Corners 2–5, Saves 4–2, Fouls 16–20, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 4–5.
Did both teams score in South Korea vs Ecuador?
No. It finished 3–0, so Ecuador failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 43% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for South Korea vs Ecuador right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Ecuador or draw 72%, it finished South Korea won (28% called); Total goals — we said 2.2, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 43%, it finished No.