Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelSC Paderborn 07 on top, and Stefano Marino getting plenty of shots away.
SC Paderborn 07 v Schalke 04 prediction
SC Paderborn 07 are favourites on our numbers: 46% to win, against 27% for Schalke 04 and 27% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Schalke 04, the most likely SC Paderborn 07 win (10%). SC Paderborn 07 are expected to score 1.5 goals and Schalke 04 1.1, 2.7 between them. Both teams scoring is 53% and three or more goals is 50%.
On shots, our forecast is 16.8 for SC Paderborn 07 and 13.8 for Schalke 04, with 6.2 and 4.1 on target, and corners at 5.9 to 4.0. In their last six games SC Paderborn 07 have one win, three draws and two defeats, while Schalke 04 have no wins, one draw and five defeats. SC Paderborn 07 drew their most recent match and Schalke 04 lost theirs.
Of their last five meetings on our records, SC Paderborn 07 have won three, Schalke 04 one, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Paderborn 2–3 Schalke 04, in Apr 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is SC Paderborn 07 or Draw, SC Paderborn 07 Over 12.5 Shots and Stefano Marino 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 42% chance, which makes the fair price 11/8 (2.36).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
SC Paderborn 07 · last 6
Schalke 04 · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
SC Paderborn 07 or draw is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model rates this match: SC Paderborn 07 are favoured (46% win probability vs 27% for Schalke 04, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for SC Paderborn 07 vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's predicted score is SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Schalke 04: the most likely score if SC Paderborn 07 win, which is the likeliest result (46%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.4%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict SC Paderborn 07 vs Schalke 04?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives SC Paderborn 07 46%, the draw 27% and Schalke 04 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Schalke 04?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on SC Paderborn 07 expecting 1.54 goals and Schalke 04 1.14.
Over or under 2.5 goals in SC Paderborn 07 vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.
When are the SC Paderborn 07 v Schalke 04 line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for SC Paderborn 07 v Schalke 04?
SC Paderborn 07 or Draw (73%), SC Paderborn 07 Over 12.5 Shots (79%), Stefano Marino 2+ Shots (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 42% chance, a fair price of 11/8 (2.36). 18+, please gamble responsibly.