Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelVfB Stuttgart on top, with Deniz Undav our likeliest to test the keeper.
Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart prediction
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart favourites for this Bundesliga game, giving them a 51% chance of winning. Schalke 04 are 23% and the draw is 26%. Our predicted score is Schalke 04 0–1 VfB Stuttgart: the most likely score if VfB Stuttgart win, at 10%. Schalke 04 are expected to score 1.1 goals and VfB Stuttgart 1.7, 2.8 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (54%) and three or more goals is 52%.
We expect Schalke 04 to have 11.7 shots (3.8 on target) and VfB Stuttgart 18.4 (6.3 on target), and corners at 3.6 to 6.6. That points to VfB Stuttgart doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Schalke 04 and VfB Stuttgart have one win each, with three draws. The last meeting ended Schalke 04 2–1 VfB Stuttgart, in Feb 2023.
On form, Schalke 04 have no wins, two draws and four defeats from their last six games, and VfB Stuttgart have two wins, one draw and three defeats. For Bawler's pick we have gone with VfB Stuttgart or Draw, VfB Stuttgart Over 13.5 Shots and Deniz Undav 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 49% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/10, or 2.05.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Schalke 04 · last 6
VfB Stuttgart · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
VfB Stuttgart or draw is 77% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler's model rates this match: VfB Stuttgart are favoured (51% win probability vs 23% for Schalke 04, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler's predicted score is Schalke 04 0-1 VfB Stuttgart: the most likely score if VfB Stuttgart win, which is the likeliest result (51%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.5%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Schalke 04 23%, the draw 26% and VfB Stuttgart 51%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Schalke 04 expecting 1.08 goals and VfB Stuttgart 1.69.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 52%.
When are the Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart or Draw (77%), VfB Stuttgart Over 13.5 Shots (82%), Deniz Undav 1+ Shot on Target (68%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.05). 18+, please gamble responsibly.