What we expect
In plain English
Racing Genk are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than KV Kortrijk. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Racing Genk to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Racing Genk vs KV Kortrijk?
Bawler's model rates this match: Racing Genk are favoured (73% win probability vs 10% for KV Kortrijk, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Racing Genk vs KV Kortrijk?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Racing Genk 2-0 KV Kortrijk (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.23.
How does Bawler predict Racing Genk vs KV Kortrijk?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Racing Genk 73%, the draw 17% and KV Kortrijk 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Racing Genk vs KV Kortrijk?
BTTS: No (50% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.45 and away expected goals 0.78.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Racing Genk vs KV Kortrijk?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.23. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).