Match prediction·NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie·Saturday 08 Aug, 18:00 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
63.6% home22.2% draw14.2% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
PSV EindhovenstepFortuna Sittard
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

PSV average 7.4 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Sittard average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
84%
Fortuna Sittard or draw
19%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

PSV vs Sittard — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between PSV and Sittard — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: PSV 64% · draw 22% · Sittard 14%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
PSV Eindhoven 22 Fortuna Sittard
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.