Match prediction·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 23 Aug, 12:30 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs FC Groningen

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
54.1% home24.6% draw21.4% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
PSV EindhovenstepFC Groningen
2.21Base xG · rolling 26-match1.37
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.21Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.37

PSV average 7.4 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Groningen average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

PSV Eindhoven fixtures & form →FC Groningen fixtures & form →

PSV vs Groningen — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between PSV and Groningen — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: PSV 54% · draw 25% · Groningen 21%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

PSV predictions & form →Groningen predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.