What we expect
In plain English
Portugal should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Wales. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Portugal to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Portugal vs Wales?
Bawler's model rates this match: Portugal are favoured (89% win probability vs 3% for Wales, 8% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Wales?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Portugal 3-0 Wales (13.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.70.
How does Bawler predict Portugal vs Wales?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Portugal 89%, the draw 8% and Wales 3%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Wales?
BTTS: No (64% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 3.23 and away expected goals 0.47.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Portugal vs Wales?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.70. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).