Team stats
What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
Match odds
How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
PEC Zwolle are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than TOP Oss, and they have won four of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
PEC Zwolle or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs TOP Oss?
Bawler's model rates this match: PEC Zwolle are favoured (48% win probability vs 25% for TOP Oss, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for PEC Zwolle vs TOP Oss?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is PEC Zwolle 1-1 TOP Oss (12.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict PEC Zwolle vs TOP Oss?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives PEC Zwolle 48%, the draw 27% and TOP Oss 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs TOP Oss?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on PEC Zwolle expecting 1.58 goals and TOP Oss 1.09.
Over or under 2.5 goals in PEC Zwolle vs TOP Oss?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.